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如何保证电力供需长期均衡是我国当前电力市场建设过程中迫切需要解决的重大问题。文中首先剖析了产生电力供需平衡振荡的经济机理,分析了缺电局面的长期演变特点。分析表明,电力系统的供需之间存在价格与需求被割裂、缺乏长期价格引导信号等问题,致使电力供需平衡出现了周期性振荡。针对上述问题,提出了规避电力供需平衡振荡的若干建议。这些措施可以使价格真正反映电能供需关系,并提供长期价格信号,从而正确引导电力的生产和消费,规避电力市场失灵,保证我国电力工业的长期、稳定和可持续发展。
How to ensure the long-term equilibrium of power supply and demand is a major issue urgently needed to be solved in the current construction of power market in our country. The paper first analyzes the economic mechanism of generating balanced oscillation of electricity supply and demand, and analyzes the long-term evolution characteristics of the power shortage situation. The analysis shows that the price and demand of the power system are fragmented and lack of long-term price guidance signals, resulting in the cyclical oscillation in the balance between power supply and demand. In view of the above problems, some suggestions to avoid the balance oscillation of power supply and demand are proposed. These measures will enable the price to truly reflect the relationship between electricity supply and demand and provide long-term price signals so as to correctly guide the production and consumption of electricity, avoid the electricity market failure and ensure the long-term, stable and sustainable development of China’s power industry.