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利用安徽省1978—2010年农作物播种面积、受灾类型及其受灾面积资料,分析农业气象灾害时空分布特征;采用灰色关联度及农业气象综合灾损模型,开展农业气象灾害年景评估。结果表明:安徽省气象灾害造成的农作物受灾面积年际波动大;农业气象灾害空间分布特点为淮北地区最重,江淮之间南部和沿江地区次之,大别山区、皖南山区以及部分城市周边相对较轻。各类气象灾害对农业受灾的影响大小依次为:暴雨洪涝>旱灾>风雹灾>低温雨雪冰冻灾,其中暴雨洪涝和旱灾影响大,受灾程度重;安徽省农业气象灾害较轻年景出现频率为55%,其中灾害最轻年份为1981年,而较重年景占12%,灾害最重的年份为1991年。上述年景评估结果与安徽省农业受灾历史记录较吻合。
The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of agrometeorological disasters were analyzed based on the sown area of crops, the type of affected area and the affected area from 1978 to 2010 in Anhui Province. The gray relational grade and agrometeorological comprehensive disaster model were used to evaluate the annual landscape of agricultural meteorological disasters. The results show that the area affected by the meteorological disasters in Anhui Province fluctuates greatly from year to year. The spatial distribution of agricultural meteorological disasters is the heaviest in Huaibei area, followed by the southern and the Yangtze River areas between the Jianghuai area, the mountainous areas in the Dabie mountain area, the southern Anhui province and some cities light. The impacts of various types of meteorological disasters on agricultural disasters were as follows: storm floods, floods, droughts, wind and hail disaster, low temperature snow and ice disaster, heavy floods and droughts, heavier disasters, and less frequent appearance of agricultural meteorological disasters in Anhui Province 55%, of which the lightest year of disasters was 1981, while the heavier years accounted for 12% of the worst disasters in 1991. The results of the above year assessment are in line with the historical record of agricultural disaster in Anhui Province.