CGE Model Measures Carbon Duty's Impact on China's Exports

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Carbon-motivated border tax adjustment is a unilateral international trade policy aimed at compensating for the loss ofcompetitiveness of carbon-intensive products due to carbon dioxide abatement actions.It violates fundamental principlesof the UNFCCC and potentially conflicts with the core WTO principle of non-discrimination as reflected in the GATTArticle Ⅰ and Article Ⅲ.Based on an analysis of carbon emissions embodied in China’s industrial exports,this paperevaluates with a recursive dynamic CGE model the potential impacts of the carbon duty on China’s industrial production,exports and employment.The results of a simulation show that with a tariff rate of US$30 or US$60 per ton of carbon,theoutput of China’s industrial sectors would decline by 0.62-1.22 percent,exports by 3.53-6.95 percent,and employment by1.22-2.39 percent.The authors suggest several measures of alleviating the impacts of carbon duty and put forward a carbonduty policy based on carbon consumption per capita as a countermeasure. Carbon-motivated border tax adjustment is a unilateral international trade policy aimed at compensating for the loss ofcompetitiveness of carbon-intensive products due to carbon dioxide abatement actions. It violates fundamental principles of the UNFCCC and potentially 2006-2010 reflected in the GATTArticle I and Article III.Based on an analysis of carbon emissions embodied in China’s industrial exports, this paperevaluates with a recursive dynamic CGE model the potential impacts of the carbon duty on China’s industrial production, exports and employment. The results of a simulation show that with a tariff rate of US $ 30 or US $ 60 per ton of carbon, the output of China’s industrial sector would decline by 0.62-1.22 percent, exports by 3.53-6.95 percent, and employment by 1.22-2.39 percent. authors suggest several measures of alleviating the impacts of carbon duty and put forward a carbon duty policy based on carbon consumption per capit a as a countermeasure.
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