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在探讨金融与经济增长关系的研究中,一个重要的研究问题就是金融发展与经济增长之间关系是否取决于通货膨胀的水平。基于门限效应回归模型,本文利用中国1952年至2008年的年度数据将通货膨胀作为门限变量进行了实证研究。研究结果表明金融发展与中国的经济增长之间存在着统计意义上显著的非线性关系,通货膨胀处于门限值以下金融发展促进经济增长,而通货膨胀超过门限值金融发展则不再显著地促进经济增长。这启示我们强调金融发展的增长效应时,政策制定者需要将通货膨胀率保持在其发生结构性变化水平以内。
In the study of the relationship between financial and economic growth, an important research question is whether the relationship between financial development and economic growth depends on the level of inflation. Based on the threshold effect regression model, this paper uses the annual data from 1952 to 2008 in China to make empirical research on the inflation as the threshold variable. The results show that there is a statistically significant non-linear relationship between financial development and economic growth in China. Inflation is below the threshold. Financial development promotes economic growth. When inflation exceeds the threshold, financial development is no longer significant promote economic growth. This suggests that when we emphasize the growth effects of financial development, policymakers need to keep inflation at a level where structural changes occur.