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为了建立小流域次暴雨产流预报模型,在岔巴沟流域选取大小不同的4个小流域10a水文资料,分析降雨、地貌等因素对流域产流的影响,选取主要因素最大30min雨量、最大30min雨强、流域沟道比降、流域面积和流域狭长度。用无量纲参数和逐步回归分析的方法估计模型参数,得到了岔巴沟流域次暴雨产流无量纲模型,用模型预报结果与实测结果对比,模型预报精度为70%。结果表明,所建立的模型具有参数少、结构简单、量纲和谐、物理意义明确的特点,可为流域产流模型进一步研究提供参考。
In order to establish a model of runoff forecasting in small watersheds, we selected 10 hydrological data of four small watersheds of different sizes in Chabagou watershed to analyze the effects of rainfall and landforms on runoff generation. The main factors of maximum 30min rainfall, maximum 30min Rain intensity, drainage channel ratio, catchment area and catchment length. The dimensionless parameters and stepwise regression analysis were used to estimate the model parameters. The dimensionless model of runoff generation in Chabagou Catchment was obtained. Compared with the measured results, the prediction accuracy of the model was 70%. The results show that the model has the characteristics of less parameter, simple structure, harmonious dimension and clear physical meaning, which can provide reference for further study of runoff model.