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为更好地管理冷链中断风险,减少中断风险对冷链造成的损失。考虑Petri网可将复杂动态系统抽象表达成网图结构,通过库所和变迁动态展示事件发生的过程,冷链中断风险中成员对中断风险反应将对冷链造成影响,构建petri网冷链上下游中断风险分析模型进行分析,并结合冷链库存在冷链风险分析中的重要性,对核心冷链成员进行库存事件petri网建模,最后通过Extendsim仿真实现中断风险下库存的变化分析。结果:冷链中断风险下petri网建模分析可以很直观地反应上下游冷链成员受提前期和成本等的影响;而冷链中断风险下库存事件petri网模型可以用Extendsim进行仿真实验,得到需求变化大及提前期较小的企业容易发生中断风险,最后通过Extendsim优化模块求出最小成本下冷库的最大库存以更好地控制中断风险。结论:petri网可以对冷链进行中断风险分析,有利于冷链企业对上下游冷链成员进行选择和管理,并可以进行中断风险的事前控制,进行中断风险的统计分析及预防中断风险带来的危害。
To better manage the risk of cold chain disruptions and reduce the risk of disruption to cold chain losses. Considering Petri nets, complex dynamical systems can be abstractly expressed as a network structure. Through the process of incidents and transitions, the occurrence of events can be dynamically demonstrated. Members’ response to the interruption risks in the cold chain interruption will affect the cold chain, and the petri net cold chain The risk analysis model of downstream interrupt is analyzed. Based on the importance of cold chain inventory in the cold chain risk analysis, the inventory of peculiarities of the core cold chain members is modeled. Finally, the inventory analysis of the inventory under the risk of interruption is carried out through Extendsim simulation. Results: Petri net modeling and analysis under the risk of cold chain interruption can intuitively reflect the influence of lead time and cost on the upstream and downstream cold chain members. The petri net model of inventory event under the risk of cold chain interruption can be simulated by Extendsim to obtain Enterprises with large demand changes and small lead times are prone to interruption risk. Finally, the largest inventory of the minimum cost warehouse is obtained through Extendsim optimization module to better control the risk of interruption. Conclusion: Petri nets can analyze the risk of interrupting the cold chain, which is helpful for the cold chain enterprises to select and manage the members of the upstream and downstream cold chain. It can also carry out the prior control of the interrupting risk, make the statistical analysis of the interrupting risk and prevent the risk of interrupting The harm.