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■本文收集了27家机构(10家券商,17家基金)2006年下半年度投资策略报告,并进行了比较研究。■有21家机构均预期下半年我国宏观经济会继续保持稳定的高速增长态势,GDP增长率在9%-10%的水平,企业整体盈利水平将处于企稳回升的恢复性态势,但同时,认为中国经济也面临着全球金融市场不确定性加剧和内外流动性紧缩的风险。■18家机构分析了市场当前市场的估值水平(见表1),其中7家机构认为当前A股市场的整体估值水平已经偏高,真实的成长性较难支撑;其余11家机构则认为处于合理区域,未来仍具备很大的上升空间,但这18家机构均认为局部存在明显低估。■行业的配置思路上,大部分机构均认为应该谨慎对待上游的资源型行业,选择性关注中游的制造品行业,而重点把握下游的消费服务类行业。
■ This article collected investment strategy reports from 27 institutions (10 brokerages and 17 funds) for the second half of 2006 and conducted a comparative study. ■ 21 institutions expect the macro-economy in China to maintain a steady high-speed growth in the second half of the year with the GDP growth rate at the level of 9% -10% and the overall profitability of enterprises will be in a recovery trend of stabilization and recovery. However, at the same time, China’s economy also faces the risk of intensifying global financial market uncertainty and the tightening of domestic and foreign liquidity. ■ 18 institutions analyzed the current valuation of the market (see Table 1). Seven of them think that the current A-share market’s overall valuation is already high and the real growth is harder to sustain. The remaining 11 institutions Think that in a reasonable area, the future still has a lot of room for growth, but all 18 organizations that there is a clear partial underestimation. ■ industry configuration ideas, most agencies believe that should be treated with caution in the upstream resource-based industries, selective focus on the manufacturing industry in the midstream, and focus on the downstream consumer services industry.