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以新疆整体为研究区,借助环境、经济、城市相关专家的理论和研究成果,分析城镇化综合水平与耕地资源的协调发展关系;文章采用综合评价指数、Spearman相关性分析、协调度模型建立以及VAR模型的动态计量等方法揭示新疆城镇化综合水平与耕地资源变动的相关性和协调性。结果表明:2002年-2013年新疆城镇化综合水平与耕地资源呈现正向发展关系,同时运用脉冲响应分析人口城镇化、经济城镇化、社会公共生活、城乡一体化对耕地的影响作用,为新疆城镇化发展与耕地资源的协调发展提供政策建议。
Taking the whole of Xinjiang as the research area, this paper analyzes the coordinated development between the comprehensive level of urbanization and the cultivated land resources with the help of the theories and research results of environmental, economic and urban experts. The article uses comprehensive evaluation index, Spearman correlation analysis, The dynamic measurement of VAR model and other methods reveal the correlation and coordination between the integrated urbanization level of Xinjiang and the change of cultivated land resources. The results show that: from 2002 to 2013, the urbanization level in Xinjiang shows a positive relationship with the cultivated land resources; at the same time, the impulse response is used to analyze the impact of population urbanization, economic urbanization, social public life and urban-rural integration on cultivated land. Urbanization and the coordinated development of cultivated land resources to provide policy advice.