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随着奶制品贸易自由化进程的加快,中国全脂奶粉进口量大幅增加,国内产业发展面临越来越严峻的挑战。本文利用空间均衡模型模拟了在贸易自由化进程中降低关税对各地区全脂奶粉供给、需求、贸易以及均衡价格的影响。本文发现,建立自由贸易区、取消中国与澳大利亚和新西兰之间全脂奶粉的关税会影响中国全脂奶粉产业的发展;而推进多边贸易谈判、实现奶制品贸易自由化,不但有利于中国全脂奶粉的生产,而且会促进世界奶业的发展。本文认为,在奶制品贸易自由化进程中应更为谨慎地开展自由贸易区谈判,积极推动多边贸易谈判。
With the acceleration of the trade liberalization of dairy products, the import of whole milk powder in China has risen sharply, and the development of domestic industries is facing more and more severe challenges. In this paper, the spatial equilibrium model is used to simulate the effect of reducing tariffs on the supply, demand, trade and equilibrium prices of whole milk powder in various regions in the process of trade liberalization. This article finds that the establishment of a free trade zone and the abolition of the tariff on whole milk powder between China and Australia and New Zealand will affect the development of the whole milk powder industry in China. To promote multilateral trade negotiations and liberalize the trade in dairy products will not only benefit China’s total fat Milk powder production, but also to promote the development of the world’s dairy industry. This paper argues that the process of free trade in dairy products should be more cautious free trade area negotiations, and actively promote multilateral trade negotiations.