本文用一元线性回归、直线趋势、自回归和二次指数平滑等四种预测模型对我国铁路煤炭运量进行了预测 ,并对四种预测模型的误差作了比较 ,目的在于对煤炭运量作出科学的预测 ,提高精度 ,实现煤炭的合理运输 In this paper, four kinds of prediction models, one linear regression, linear trend, autoregressive and quadratic exponential smoothing, are used to predict the coal transportation volume of China’s railways. The errors of the four prediction models are compared with each other to make the coal transportation volume Scientific prediction, improve accuracy, to achieve the rational transport of coal