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本文主要运用协整理论和误差修正模型等对山东省税收收入和GDP的关系进行实证分析,实证分析的结果表明:在长期,两者之间存在稳定的均衡关系,但税收弹性过低;在短期,税收收入和GDP之间的关系保持大体平衡。税收收入弹性过低表明我省税制结构不尽合理,税收征管制度也存在问题,所以对于对于二者关系的研究具有很重要的现实意义。
This paper mainly uses the cointegration theory and the error correction model to analyze the relationship between tax revenue and GDP in Shandong Province. The empirical analysis shows that: in the long run, there is a stable equilibrium between the two, but the tax elasticity is too low; In the short term, the relationship between tax revenue and GDP remains broadly balanced. Too low tax revenue elasticity shows that the tax structure in our province is not reasonable and there are problems in the tax collection and administration system. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the relationship between the two.