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利用病因概率(Probability of Causation,PC)方法判断癌症患者所患癌症与既往受电离辐射照射的因果关系,以作为仲裁电离辐射诱发癌症赔偿的依据,已在美国、英国和加拿大等国采用。本文简要介绍该法在恶性肿瘤辐射病因判断中的应用及其背景、原理、计算方法和不确定度,以及该法在处理诉讼案中所遇到的问题及其发展前景。
The causal relationship between cancers in cancer patients and previous exposure to ionizing radiation is judged by the method of Probability of Causation (PC), which is used as a basis for arbitration of cancer-induced ionizing radiation. It has been adopted in the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada. This article briefly introduces the application of the method in the etiological diagnosis of malignant tumor and its background, principle, calculation method and uncertainty, as well as the problems encountered in the lawsuit case and its development prospects.