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以刚体极限平衡理论为基础，首次建立了拱坝坝肩整体稳定可靠度分析数学模型，导出了全概率方法分析其可靠度的计算公式，编写了相应的计算程序，并结合某拱坝实例对两岸坝肩岩体作了较详细的可靠度计算与分析，得到一些有实际意义的成果，实际计算表明，本文提出的计算方法合理，计算结果可靠，是对拱坝坝肩整体稳定可靠度分析的较好方法．
Based on the theory of rigid body limit equilibrium, the mathematical model of the whole stability analysis of arch dam abutment was established for the first time. The formula for calculating the reliability of the arch dam abutment was derived and the corresponding calculation program was compiled. Combined with the case of an arch dam Computation and analysis of the abutment shoulder rock mass of the two banks has been carried out in detail, and some practical results have been obtained. The actual calculation shows that the calculation method proposed in this paper is reasonable and the calculation result is reliable. The better way.