论文部分内容阅读
在过去的岁月中,世界经济曾历经忧患,饱尝风霜,除洪水、干旱、地震、瘟疫等这些自然因素给人类带来了无数灾难外,人类自己还为自己制造了30年代的经济大危机和两次世界大战,从而使世界经济的发展遭受了严重挫折。瞻望未来,我们虽然仍充满信心持乐观态度,但仍不能不看到世界经济所面临的严重风险挑战。在这里,我们不想下一个简单的结论,也不想用数学模型去作精确的论证,而只想依据对现实的感受和对未来的预测来粗略地描述一下世界经济所面临的风险威胁。一、政治选择不理智引起的风险我们知道,政治对经济具有极大的影响,有时甚至起决定性的作用。如果在国际社会
In the past years, the world economy has experienced troubles and weathered the winds. In addition to the innumerable calamities brought to mankind by natural factors such as floods, droughts, earthquakes and plagues, mankind itself also created itself a major economic crisis of the 1930s and Two world wars, so that the development of the world economy suffered serious setbacks. In the future, although we are still optimistic and confident, we still can not fail to see the grave risk challenges that the world economy faces. Here, we do not want to go to the next simple conclusion, nor do we want to use mathematical models to make precise arguments. Instead, we simply want to roughly describe the threat to the world economy based on the perception of reality and the prediction of the future. I. Risks Caused by Irrational Political Choices We know that politics have a great impact on the economy and sometimes even play a decisive role. If in the international community