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采用对时间序列数据的计量分析,对2005年8~2012年12月国内燃料油期货价格与国内燃料油现货价格、国际原油现货价格、国际原油期货价格、中国股票市场交易额数据之间关系进行实证分析后发现:国内燃料油现货价格和期货价格呈现双向引导作用;国际原油期货价格对国内燃料油期货具有单向引导作用;国内燃料油期货价格和国际原油期货价格具有双向引导作用。由此可以看出:我国燃油油期货价格发现功能得到了初步的发挥,但是其作用明显要小于国外市场;我国燃料油期货价格与市场形成联动,经济功能得到逐渐发挥,影响不断提升;虽然燃料油的相关国际市场与国内市场已经形成了良好的互动关系,但是国内市场相还是比较被动;资本市场资金量的波动在燃料油期货价格中的表现出来的主要是反映了短期的投机因素。为此,建议进一步加强燃料油期货市场监管力度,正确引导并鼓励石油企业利用期货市场进行套期保值,加大以资本市场为主的金融支持体系建设,完善期货市场的准入制度。
Using the econometric analysis of time series data, the relationship between the domestic fuel oil futures price and the spot price of domestic fuel oil, the spot price of international crude oil, the international crude oil futures price and the transaction value of the Chinese stock market from August to December in 2005 The empirical analysis shows that the spot price of domestic fuel oil and the futures price play a two-way guiding role. The international crude oil futures price has a one-way guidance on the domestic fuel oil futures. The domestic fuel oil futures price and the international crude oil futures price have two-way guidance. It can be seen from this that the function of discovering the price of fuel oil futures in our country has been initially brought into play but its role is obviously smaller than that of foreign markets. The linkage between the price of fuel oil futures and the market in our country has brought the economic function into play gradually and the influence has been continuously improved. Although the fuel The related international oil market has formed a good interactive relationship with the domestic market, but the domestic market is still relatively passive. The fluctuation of the capital market capitalization in the fuel oil futures price mainly reflects the short-term speculative factors. To this end, it is recommended to further strengthen the supervision of the fuel oil futures market, correctly guide and encourage oil companies to use the futures market to hedge, increase the capital market-based financial support system, improve the futures market access system.