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我们认为,周期性因素不仅在当前的调控环境下被广泛关注,今后也将成为资本市场不可回避的长期话题。为了便于分析,我们首先做个简要的界定,拟结合钢铁、电解铝、煤炭、电力、石化、海运、汽车和水泥等八个具有代表性的周期性行业的运行态势,并结合从中寻找出潜在的投资机会。对于周期性品种,将成为市场难以逾越的主题。一方面,宏观调控加剧周期性行业分化,进而也形成了不同的市场运行特征。另一方面,数量极为有限的周期性大盘股,其重要的市场地位决定了我们没有理由不给予足够的关注。还有,市场已经处于低风险区域,部分周期性品种已经逐步显现出局部的投资价值。从估值方法,能不能找到最有效的?无论是相对价值法的P/E和EV/EBITDA以及绝对价值法的DCF和DDM,都有很多的假设条件。包括未来的业绩预测、现金流的计算和红利的分配等,这样也降低了估值判断的有效性。市盈率分析法(P/E)是最为简单的,其涉及的不确定也是最少的,也最容易把握。通过对美国铝业、菲利普-道奇的毛利率和股价走势的分析,我们所得出的结论是基本一致的,通过对行业景气度的判断来把握买卖时点较为可取。同时,毛利率和市盈率虽然存在较为显著的负相关关系,但是仅仅以市盈率作为时机抉择的因素尚存在很大的不确定性,以最低市盈率卖出和最高市盈率买入还很难在实际中具体执行。通过境内公司的分析,我们可以得出几点基本结论:首先,股价变化总体反映行业景气度的变化。其次,对不同阶段的敏感度不同。第三,合理市盈率的定位不明确也成为股价波动差异的重要原因。同时,毛利率与市盈率虽然存在负相关关系的比例很高,但实际中的可操作性并不强。我们以行业景气度作为时机抉择依据和8个行业的周期性特征,很容易得出潜力品种的备选库,然后进行进一步的筛选。结合具体的公司进行分析,海螺水泥、兰州铝业、长安汽车具有较大的潜力,而华能国际由于产能扩张速度有限制约了其成长性,我们暂不关注。
In our opinion, the cyclical factors are not only widely concerned under the current regulatory environment, but will also become an unavoidable long-term topic in capital markets in the future. In order to facilitate the analysis, we first make a brief definition to be combined with the operational situations of eight representative cyclical industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, coal, electricity, petrochemical, marine, automobile and cement, and combine them to find out the potential Investment opportunities. For cyclical varieties, will become the insurmountable theme of the market. On the one hand, macroeconomic regulation and aggravate the cyclical industry differentiation, and thus also formed a different market operating characteristics. On the other hand, a very limited number of cyclical large-cap stocks, whose important market position has determined that we have no reason not to pay enough attention. Also, the market has been in a low-risk area, some of the cyclical varieties have gradually showed a partial investment value. From the valuation method, can find the most effective? Both the relative value method of P / E and EV / EBITDA and the absolute value method of DCF and DDM, there are many assumptions. Including the future performance forecast, the calculation of cash flow and the distribution of bonuses, which also reduces the effectiveness of valuation judgments. Price-earnings ratio analysis (P / E) is the most simple, it involves the uncertainty is the least, but also the most easy to grasp. Through the analysis of the gross profit rates and the stock price movements of Alcoa, Phillip-Dodge, we come to the conclusion that it is more desirable to grasp the timing of the sale through the judgment of the industry’s prosperity. At the same time, gross profit margin and price-earnings ratio, although there is a significant negative correlation, but only the price-earnings ratio as a timing factor there is still a lot of uncertainty, to sell at the lowest price-earnings ratio and the highest price-earnings ratio is difficult to buy in the concrete carried out. Through the analysis of domestic companies, we can draw a few basic conclusions: First, the changes in stock prices reflect the overall industry boom. Second, the sensitivity to different stages is different. Third, the uncertain Positioning of reasonable price-earnings ratio has become an important reason for the stock price fluctuations. At the same time, gross profit margin and price-earnings ratio, although there is a high proportion of negative correlation, but the actual maneuverability is not strong. We take the industry boom as a timing basis and periodic characteristics of eight industries, it is easy to draw alternative library of potential varieties, and then further screening. Combined with specific companies to analyze, Conch Cement, Lanzhou Aluminum, Changan Automobile has greater potential, and Huaneng Power International Limited as capacity expansion has limited its growth rate limited, we are not concerned.