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奥肯定理表明:与潜在增长率相比,高产出增长伴随着失业率的降低,低产出增长伴随着失业率的上升。根据1978年以来中国对外公布的宏观数据进行奥肯模型检验,认为奥肯定理在中国短期内失灵,主要原因在于我国奥肯定理的前提条件还不完全具备,以及中外失业统计指标范围及计算上的差异等因素,但应用发展的眼光看待奥肯定理,从长期来看,其基本思想在中国仍然是成立的。所以要坚持市场经济改革的方向,加快经济结构调整,促使“二元经济”向“一元经济”转变;要把产业结构的优化升级作为今后转变发展方式和扩大劳动力就业的突破口来抓。同时进一步完善国民经济统计制度,完善统计指标,使失业统计的口径与经济增长统计的口径相一致。
Okun’s theorem shows that, compared with the potential growth rate, the increase of high output is accompanied by the decrease of the unemployment rate, while the increase of the low output is accompanied by the increase of the unemployment rate. According to the Oanken model test of macroeconomic data released by China since 1978, it is believed that the failure of Okun’s theorem in China in the short term is mainly due to the incomplete preconditions of Okun’s theorem in our country, as well as the scope and calculation of unemployment statistics in China and abroad However, in the long run, the basic idea of Okun’s theorem is still established in China. Therefore, we must adhere to the direction of the market economy reform, speed up the readjustment of the economic structure and promote the transformation of the “dual economy” to the “one dollar economy.” We must take the optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure as the breakthrough point for transforming the mode of development and expanding the employment of the labor force in the future Grab. At the same time, the statistical system for the national economy should be further improved and the statistical indicators should be improved so that the caliber of unemployment statistics is consistent with the standard of economic growth.