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进入2017年以来,经济数据有所回暖,不仅表现在经济增长总量上连续同比上升,消费、出口贸易等细项数据也有连续改善。基于经济数据的短期回暖,关于中国经济是否即将开启一轮“新周期”的讨论也在持续进行。从中国国内市场观察,目前还并不具备能够从结构上显著影响经济增长的条件和因素;从国际市场看,全球经济复苏总体乏力,逆全球化趋势跃跃欲试。因此,当前中国经济的状况,可以说更多的是呈现出新的波动形式,但是还难以支持一个新的周期。一、中国经济金融体系还在出清过
Since 2017, economic data has picked up not only by a continuous year-on-year rise in the total economic growth but also by continuous improvement in the breakdown of consumption and export trade. Based on the short-term recovery of economic data, discussions on whether China’s economy is about to open a “new cycle” are also continuing. From the perspective of China’s domestic market, the conditions and factors that can significantly affect economic growth from the structural point of view are not currently available. From the perspective of the international market, the global economic recovery is generally sluggish and the trend toward globalization is eager. Therefore, the current situation of China’s economy can be said to show more new forms of volatility, but it is also difficult to support a new cycle. First, China’s economic and financial system is still clear