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本文分别建立了四川省工业利润总额方面的GMDH自回归预测模型和AC预测模型,然后针对它们的预测效果建立了GMDH-AC组合预测模型。并将组合预测结果与实际值以及单一的GMDH模型、AC模型的预测效果进行了分析和比较,表明了所述方法的有效性和可行性,从而为预测工业利润总额及其它宏观经济预测指标在选择预测方法提供了参考。
In this paper, GMDH autoregressive forecasting model and AC forecasting model in terms of total industrial profits in Sichuan Province are established, and then GMDH-AC combined forecasting model is established for their forecasting effects. The result of combination prediction and actual value as well as single GMDH model and AC model are analyzed and compared, which shows the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed method. In order to predict the total industrial profits and other macroeconomic indicators The selection of prediction methods provides a reference.