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人口红利之后,中国靠什么发挥大国优势?通过空间经济理论构建市场需求规模与产业发展之间的逻辑关系;然后利用中国工业统计数据,检验中国分省区和分行业的制造业本地市场效应的存在性,并以欧美分国别和分行业的制造业本地市场效应进行对比。结果发现:中国近一半省份存在HME,欧盟存在本地市场效应的主要是区域中相对发达国家。需求规模优势将成为继劳动力等要素比较优势后的又一内生增长动力;作为发展中大国,识别并发挥潜在的市场需求规模优势,并用于指导区域产业发展和布局,是改善供给结构和提高有效供给能力,是“大国优势”从人口规模向需求规模演变的一个动态升级。
After demographic dividend, what role does China play in the power of the big powers? To construct the logical relationship between the scale of market demand and industrial development through the theory of space economy; and then to use China’s industrial statistics to test the local market effect of manufacturing in China’s provinces and sub-sectors Existence, and to Europe and the United States divided by country and sub-sectors manufacturing local market effect comparison. The result shows that HME exists in nearly half of China’s provinces, and the EU mainly has the local market effect in the relatively developed countries in the region. Demand scale advantage will become another endogenous growth impetus after comparative advantages such as labor force. As a big developing country, identifying and exerting the potential market demand scale advantage and guiding the regional industrial development and layout will improve the supply structure and increase Effective supply capacity is a dynamic upgrade of the “big power advantage” from population size to demand size.