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中国超越日本成为亚洲最大高技术产品出口国,已引起国内外学者关注。本文采用CEPII BACI hs92六位码产品贸易数据,测度了中日两国1995-2013年间高技术产品的出口扩展边际、价格边际和数量边际,分析了出口增长的主要推动力和影响因素。研究结果表明:中国高技术产品出口仅仅在数量边际上超过了日本,价格边际抑或产品质量仅为日本的四成;中国高技术产品出口高速增长主要由集约边际推动,扩展边际贡献接近于零。日本高技术产品出口增长主要由价格边际拉动,扩展边际和数量边际双双负增长;进口中间品与中国扩展边际和价格边际负相关,与数量边际正相关,与日本三元边际总体负相关。目的市场经济规模与两国价格边际负相关。经济自由化程度与中国价格边际和日本扩展边际负相关。外商直接投资与中国价格边际正相关。最后,本文提出了维系中国高技术产品出口快速增长的政策建议。
China surpassed Japan to become Asia’s largest exporter of high-tech products and has drawn the attention of scholars at home and abroad. Based on the trade data of CEPII BACI hs92 six-digit code product, this paper measured the export expansion margins, price margins and quantity margins of high-tech products between 1995 and 2013 in China and Japan and analyzed the main driving forces and influencing factors of export growth. The results show that the export of high-tech products in China only surpassed Japan in terms of quantity, the price margin or product quality was only 40% of that in Japan. The rapid growth of China’s high-tech export was mainly driven by intensive marginalization and the marginal contribution to expansion was close to zero. Japan’s exports of hi-tech products were mainly driven by price marginalization, both the marginal growth and the quantitative marginal growth. Imported intermediates were negatively correlated with China’s expansionary margins and price margins, positively correlated with the quantitative margins and negatively correlated with the Japan ternary margins. The size of the target market economy is negatively correlated with the price margins of the two countries. The degree of economic liberalization is negatively correlated with China’s price margins and Japan’s expansionary margins. Foreign direct investment is positively correlated with the price of China. Finally, this paper presents policy recommendations to sustain the rapid growth of China’s exports of high-tech products.