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了解物种的分布特征和动态,对生物多样性保护和恢复具有重要意义。乌冈栎(Quercus phillyraeoides)广布东亚亚热带,是常绿阔叶林的重要组成树种,具有重要生态功能和经济价值。本研究根据乌冈栎134个分布点和9个环境变量,用MaxEnt预测、分析其在当前(1950—2000年)和未来(2060—2080年)气候下的潜在分布格局。综合利用百分比贡献率、置换重要值和刀切法检验气候因子对乌冈栎分布的影响。结果表明:当前潜在分布区与已知分布记录有很好的对应,最适宜分布区涵盖了中国东部、中国西南部及日本南部,占总适宜区的29.9%;最暖季度降水量和最暖月最高温对乌冈栎的潜在分布影响最大;未来随着二氧化碳浓度逐渐升高,乌冈栎的潜在适宜分布区面积将逐渐减少,高度适宜区将锐减,特别东部沿海适宜区将逐渐丧失。本研究阐明了未来气候变化对乌冈栎潜在分布的影响,可为东亚常绿阔叶林生态系统的保护和恢复提供基础资料。
Understanding the distribution characteristics and dynamics of species is of great importance to the conservation and restoration of biodiversity. Quercus phillyraeoides widely distributed in the subtropical East Asia, is an important component of evergreen broad-leaved forest species, has important ecological functions and economic value. Based on the 134 distribution points and 9 environmental variables of the oak oak, this study uses MaxEnt prediction to analyze the potential distribution patterns in the current (1950-2000) and future (2060-2080) climates. The effects of climatic factors on the distribution of Quercus acutissima were evaluated by the percentage contribution, the replacement value and the knife-cut method. The results show that there is a good correspondence between the current potential distribution and the known distribution records. The most suitable distribution covers 29.9% of the total suitable area in eastern China, southwestern China and southern Japan, and the warmest seasonal precipitation and the warmest The highest monthly temperature has the greatest influence on the potential distribution of Ostrinia. This will lead to a decrease in the potential suitable distribution area of Quercus acutissima as the concentration of carbon dioxide increases in the future and a sharp decline in the height-appropriate area, especially in the eastern eastern coastal areas . This study clarifies the impact of future climate change on the potential distribution of the Ukrainian oak, and provides the basic information for the protection and restoration of the evergreen broad-leaved forest ecosystem in East Asia.