论文部分内容阅读
本文是对一种全新预算体系的理论探索,旨在应对财政不确定性和不稳定性。[1③]通过考察政策需求导向的年度预算平衡,本文认为传统的年度预算周期将导致预算周期与公共服务持续供给之间的失衡。作者认为多年度预算是一种潜在解决方法——运用逆周期的财政储备来保证波动经济环境中的财政稳定性。通过采用预算稳定基金并保留足够的财政储备,州政府便可以在经济衰退时期维持一贯水平的公共服务。面板数据分析为这种基金在经济衰退时期稳定政府支出提供了经验证据。逆周期财政政策和预算稳定基金的采用是迈向长期预算的坚定一步,可以保证跨越经济周期的预算稳定。
This article is a theoretical exploration of a new budget system designed to address fiscal uncertainty and instability. [1] By examining the policy-oriented annual budget balance, this paper argues that the traditional annual budget cycle will lead to the imbalance between the budget cycle and the continuous supply of public services. The author argues that multi-annual budgeting is a potential solution - using countercyclical fiscal reserves to ensure fiscal stability in volatile economic conditions. By adopting budget stabilization funds and retaining adequate fiscal reserves, state governments can maintain a consistent level of public service during recessions. Panel data analysis provides empirical evidence that such funds stabilize government spending during periods of economic decline. The adoption of counter-cyclical fiscal policies and budget stabilization funds is a firm step towards long-term budgeting and guarantees a stable budget across economic cycles.