【摘 要】
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1.中国经济面临调结构、稳增长、化解金融风险的挑战。如何平衡供给侧结构性改革和需求管理,如何促进有序的去杠杆,如何遏制房地产泡沫和民间投资下滑等结构恶化的倾向?从宏
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1.中国经济面临调结构、稳增长、化解金融风险的挑战。如何平衡供给侧结构性改革和需求管理,如何促进有序的去杠杆,如何遏制房地产泡沫和民间投资下滑等结构恶化的倾向?从宏观政策看,要应对这些挑战,是继续刺激投资,还是促进消费?一个颇为流行的观点是提升家庭杠杆既能促进消费、稳增长,又不增加金融风险,甚至是降低企业高杠杆的一个转移手段。果真如此?我们的观点是,化解当前经济运行中的突出问题,促进消费是关键和抓手,而促进消费需要结构性改革,而不是金融加杠杆。
1. China’s economy faces the challenge of adjusting its structure, stabilizing growth and resolving financial risks. How to balance supply-side structural reform and demand management, how to promote orderly deleveraging and how to curb the propensity of structural deterioration such as real estate bubble and non-government investment decline? From a macro-policy perspective, to meet these challenges, is to continue to stimulate investment or promote Consumption? A rather popular view is that promoting household leverage can both boost consumption, stabilize growth without increasing financial risk, and even a means of reducing corporate leverage. If so? Our view is that resolving the prominent problems in the current economic operation, promoting consumption is the key and starting point, and promoting consumer demand for structural reform, rather than financial plus leverage.
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