论文部分内容阅读
回顾地震预报研究的历史和现状,可以肯定,地震活动的分析作为预报地震的重要方法曾在实际应用中获得某些成功,但大量的错报、漏报说明不少问题仍有待进一步研究。这些问题大致可以归纳为以下三个主要方面:1.如何根据各种动态图象的含义,采用相应的较合理的分析方法。2.如何正确地判别中小地震活动的异常是否为大震的前兆。3.如何较客观地估计各种方法的预报效能。
Reviewing the history and current situation of earthquake prediction research, we can affirm that the analysis of seismic activity has obtained some success in the practical application as an important method for predicting earthquakes. However, a lot of misjudgment and omission of reports indicate that many issues remain to be further studied. These questions can be roughly summarized into the following three main aspects: 1. How to use the corresponding more reasonable analysis method according to the meaning of various dynamic images. 2. How to correctly determine whether the anomalies of small-medium-sized earthquakes are precursors to large earthquakes. How to more objectively estimate the forecasting effectiveness of various methods.