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根据太湖流域主要稻虫发生规律的历史资料,结合未来水稻品种规划、耕作制度改革、主要杀虫剂的取代趋向和气候变化等制约因素的推测;通过综合定性分析,预计今后5～10年内,该区稻虫种群的结构和发生程度将有较大的变化:属高频率大发生型的有褐稻虱;属回升发生型的有三化螟、稻象岬;属低谷发生型的有灰稻虱传播的条纹叶枯病;属中等以下发生型的有二化螟;属偏轻发生型的有稻蓟马、黑尾叶蝉、大螟:白背稻虱和纵卷叶螟的大发生频率将与八十年代初期持平。
According to the historical data of the main rice-pests occurrence in the Taihu Lake Basin, combined with the future rice variety planning, farming system reform, the main trends of the substitution of pesticides and climate change constraints; Through comprehensive qualitative analysis, it is estimated that in the next 5 to 10 years, The structure and occurrence degree of the rice pest population in this area will have a greater change: a high frequency of occurrence of brown planthopper; there is a rebound occurred in the borer, rice paddy promontory; is a low incidence of gray rice Louse-transmitted striped leaf blight; is a secondary occurrence of Chilo suppressalis; genus partial occurrence of rice thrips, black-tailed leafhopper, Sesamia: white back louse and leafroller large occurrence The frequency will be flat with the early eighties.