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我国进出口贸易总额随时间变化处于不断的波动中,研究我国进出口贸易总额波动的基本规律、预测短期内我国进出口贸易总额的现实问题。本论文主要是利用近60年的中国进出口贸易总额数据,通过建立时间序列分析模型,找出我国进出口贸易总额的波动规律,进而来预测我国未来几年的进出口贸易总额数据,以达到对我国对外经济发展状况基本的了解和把握,并提出一些相关的提高我国对外贸易水平的可行性建议。文中提出了中国进出口贸易总额的两种预测方法:简单时间序列的我进出口贸易总额的预测、基于ARMA(p,q)模型的中国进出口贸易总额的预测。
The total volume of China’s import and export trade is constantly fluctuating with time. We study the basic law of the total fluctuation of the volume of China’s import and export trade and predict the actual problems of the total volume of China’s import and export trade in the short term. This paper mainly uses the data of the total import and export volume of China in recent 60 years and establishes the time series analysis model to find out the fluctuation law of the total volume of import and export trade in our country and then forecast the total import and export volume data of our country in the coming years We should have a basic understanding of and grasp the status of our country’s foreign economic development and put forward some relevant suggestions on the feasibility of raising the level of China’s foreign trade. Two forecasting methods for the total volume of China’s import and export trade are proposed in the paper: the forecast of the total import and export volume of China in a simple time series, and the forecast of the total import and export volume of China based on the ARMA (p, q) model.