1949年初,三大战役的胜利结束,人民解放军即将开始向长江以南进军,毛泽东也开始考虑解放台湾的问题。这年年初,他分析台湾的情况说:台湾是中国的领土,这是无可争辩的。现在估计国民党的残余力量大概全要撤到那里去,以后同我们隔海相望,不相往来。那里还有一个美国问题,台湾实际上就在美帝国主义的保护下。台湾问题比西藏问题更复杂,解决它更需要时间。显然,毛泽东认为解放台湾不像解放大陆那样,把军队开去就行了,而必须先解决渡海作战问题,还要认真对付美国插手问题。关于前一点,毛泽东提出筹建一支可用于战斗的海军和空军。至于第二个问题,毛泽东认为中国人民革命力量愈强大、愈坚决,美帝国主义进行直接的军事干涉的可能性也就愈小。因此,他主张要准备对付美国的武装干涉。他说,这种准备是必需的,有此准备即可制止帝国主义的干涉野心,使其有所畏而不敢出兵。并且,“从来就是将美国直接出兵与我们作战这样一种可能性计算在作战计划之内的”。根据经验,毛泽东判断,美军不想直接卷入中国内战,只是间接干预。其它几个帝国主义国家目前是泥菩萨过河——自身难保,实际上也没有能力出来冒险。后来,局势的发展证明毛泽东的判断是正确的。 In early 1949, the victory of the three major campaigns ended and the People’s Liberation Army was about to begin marching south of the Yangtze River. Mao Zedong also began to consider the issue of liberating Taiwan. Earlier this year, he analyzed the situation in Taiwan and said: Taiwan is China’s territory. This is indisputable. Now it is estimated that the remnants of the Kuomintang will probably only be withdrawn there and will not be in contact with us afterwards. There is also a U.S. problem there, and Taiwan is actually under the protection of U.S. imperialism. The Taiwan issue is more complicated than the Tibet issue and it takes more time to solve it. Obviously, Mao Zedong believed that unlike Taiwan’s liberation, the liberation of Taiwan did not allow the army to go any further. Instead, it must first solve the problem of crossing the sea and combat the U.S. intervention. On the previous point, Mao proposed to set up a navy and air force that could be used for fighting. As for the second question, Mao Zedong believed that the more powerful and resolute the revolutionary forces in the Chinese people are, the less likely the U.S. imperialists will be to engage in direct military intervention. Therefore, he advocated preparing to deal with U.S. armed intervention. He said that this preparation is necessary. With this preparation, imperialists’ interference in their ambitions can be stopped and their fear of military deployment can not be waived. And, “It is always the possibility of calculating the possibility that the United States directly dispatches troops to fight with us within the operational plan.” According to experience, Mao Zedong judged that the U.S. military did not want to be directly involved in the civil war in China but only indirectly. Several other imperialist countries are now muddha-bodhisattva crossing the river - their own security, in fact, no ability to come out adventure. Later, the development of the situation proves that Mao Zedong’s judgment is correct.