一、引言煤炭是关系我国国计民生的重要物资，煤炭的生产和消费一直占我国一次能源生产和消费的70％以上。因此，加强对煤炭工业经济发展趋势的预测，特别是对煤炭工业经济是否有普及警度如何的专门预测分析，即预警分析，对于保证我国煤炭工业、能源工业乃至整个国民经济协调? I. INTRODUCTION Coal is an important material in relation to China’s national economy and people’s livelihood. Coal production and consumption have always accounted for more than 70% of China’s primary energy production and consumption. Therefore, to strengthen the prediction of the economic development trend of the coal industry, especially whether there is a special forecasting analysis of whether the coal industry economy has a prevailing alert degree, that is, early warning analysis, to ensure the coordination of China’s coal industry, energy industry, and even the entire national economy?