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为了夏播谷子丰产,探索夏谷播期(转换值)与产量的最佳拟合曲线预测模型。采用田间小区试验和非线性回归分析的方法,对主要的11种函数模型进行模拟和比较。结果表明,夏谷播期对产量具有重要影响。二次曲线模型是模拟冀谷19与冀谷31播期与产量关系的最优模型。冀谷19的方程式为Yj19=10.978+0.066x-0.004x2,最适播期为6月18日,对应的最高产量为5625.15kg·hm-2,较对照(7月9日播种)增产17.53%;冀谷31的方程式为Yj31=11.532+0.039x-0.003x2,最适播期为6月17日,对应的最高产量为5829.40kg·hm-2,较对照增产18.72%。冀谷19与冀谷31的适播期均为6月12—24日,较对照平均增产16.8%以上。本研究确定的适宜播期,将为夏谷生产提供理论支撑。
In order to summer sow millet yield, explore the best fitting curve prediction model of summer sowing date (conversion value) and yield. Field experiment and nonlinear regression analysis were used to simulate and compare the main 11 kinds of function models. The results showed that summer sowing date had an important influence on the yield. The quadratic curve model is the best model to simulate the relationship between the sowing date and yield of Ji-Ji 19 and Ji-Gu 31. The equation of Ji Gu 19 is Yj19 = 10.978 + 0.066x-0.004x2, the optimum sowing date is June 18, and the corresponding maximum yield is 5625.15kg · hm-2, which is 17.53% more than the control (sown on July 9) ; The formula of Ji Gu 31 is Yj31 = 11.532 + 0.039x-0.003x2, the optimum sowing date is June 17, corresponding to the highest yield 5829.40kg · hm-2, 18.72% higher than the control. The suitable sowing date of Ji-19 and Ji-Gu-31 was June 12-24, which increased by 16.8% on average compared with the control. The appropriate sowing date determined in this study will provide theoretical support for summer grain production.