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2013年,南美和美国大豆产量较2012年均有大幅增加,在南美港口阻塞和美国夏季干旱炒作的影响下,中国大豆供应市场依然处于偏紧格局,大豆进口价格居高不下,造成油厂豆粕生产成本较高;同时,豆油市场在库存高企和需求低迷的影响下,价格大幅下跌,间接增强了油厂对豆粕现货挺价意愿,支撑国内豆粕现货价格。预计2014年国内畜禽存栏量维持高位运行,对豆粕需求量稳定,但在全球大豆供应较宽松格局下,2014年豆类市场涨势延续缩窄,或将维持区间震荡。
In 2013, soybean yields in South America and the United States both increased significantly compared with those in 2012. Given the clogging of South American ports and summer droughts in the United States, the soybean supply market in China is still in a tight pattern with high soybean import prices, resulting in soybean meal Meanwhile, the soybean oil market, under the influence of the high inventory and the sluggish demand, plunged in price, indirectly boosting the oil plant’s willingness of selling the spot price of soybean meal and supporting the spot price of domestic soybean meal. It is estimated that the domestic stock of livestock and poultry will maintain its high level in 2014 and the demand for soybean meal will be stable. However, under the more relaxed global soybean supply situation, the market for beans in 2014 will continue to narrow, or the interval will fluctuate.