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笔者通过构建可变参数的状态空间模型,采用2001年~2013年的月度数据,对影响国际有色金属价格的“中国需求”进行了分解,系统考察了国际有色金属价格与主要“中国需求”因素、工业总产值、进口总额及货币供应量之间的动态关系,结果显示:“中国需求”对国际有色金属价格的动态影响轨迹在2009年5月发生结构性变化;从2009年5月开始,“中国需求”对国际有色金属价格的影响渐趋稳定,预示着我国新一轮有色金属需求开始由库兹涅茨曲线上升期转入稳定期;工业总产值、进口总额对国际有色金属价格的影响系数基本为正。而由于投机性存货的作用,与预期相反,货币供应量与国际有色金属价格总体呈现负向关联。
By constructing a state space model of variable parameters and using monthly data from 2001 to 2013, the author decomposes “China’s demand” that affects the international non-ferrous metals prices and systematically examines the relationship between the international non-ferrous metals prices and the major “China The results show that the dynamic impact of ”China Demand“ on the international non-ferrous metals price changes structurally in May 2009. From the point of view of ”the demand“, the gross industrial output, the total amount of imports and the money supply, Since May 2009, the influence of ”China Demand" on international non-ferrous metals prices has stabilized, which indicates that the demand of China’s new round of nonferrous metals has started to turn from a rising period in Kuznets Curve to a stable period. The total industrial output value, The coefficient of influence of the total amount of imports on the international non-ferrous metals prices is basically positive. Due to the role of speculative inventories, contrary to expectations, the money supply and the international non-ferrous metals prices are generally negatively correlated.