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《中国证券报》近日发表王丽安的文章,对今年国债市场发展趋势进行了分析。 一、国债的发行规模将不断扩大,财政信用将成为支撑未来基础性建设的支柱 1998年下半年面对商业银行增发一千亿基础设施国债是政府加大财政政策力度扩大国债发行规模的重要表现。此外,财政部部长项怀诚已明确表示1999年将进一步扩大财政赤字,由1998年的960亿元扩大到今年的1503亿元,并将财政支出用于增加基础建设投资为首的八件大事上。 根据我国目前的债务总量和结构,扩大发展规模是完全可行的。1998年底,我国国债余额为8700亿左右,占当年国内生产总值(79553亿)的比重约为10％,都远远要比15％至30％的世界通行水平低得多。从理论上讲,1999年如果按7％的经济增长计算,我国今年的国债余额约可保持在12800亿至25600亿元左右。这样,我国增发国债的潜力是相当大的。
China Securities Journal recently published an article by Wang Li’an, analyzing the development trend of the bond market this year. First, the issue of treasury bonds will continue to expand the scale, the financial credit will be the backbone of supporting future infrastructure In the second half of 1998 faced commercial banks to issue 100 billion additional treasury bonds is the government to increase fiscal policy efforts to expand the size of treasury bonds issued an important performance . In addition, Minister of Finance Xiang Huai-cheng has made it clear that the fiscal deficit will be further expanded in 1999, from 96 billion yuan in 1998 to 150.3 billion yuan this year, and will be used to increase expenditures on infrastructure investment in the eight major events . According to China’s current total debt and structure, expanding the scale of development is entirely feasible. By the end of 1998, the balance of China’s national debts was about 870 billion yuan, accounting for about 10% of the GDP of that year (79.553 billion yuan), much lower than the world level of 15-30%. In theory, if China calculated its economic growth rate of 7% in 1999, the balance of China’s government bonds this year will remain at about 1,280 billion to 2,560 billion yuan. In this way, the potential for additional treasury bonds in our country is considerable.