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中国社会已步入一个历史性的风险高度累积的发展阶段,在这样的环境中,以损失补偿为主要功能的财产保险业是否有足够的损失赔付能力就成为一个不能不考虑的重要问题。本文基于Cummins,Doherty和Anita(2002)的保险赔付能力度量模型,引入1998年～2007年中国保险业经营数据,在改进后的损失对数正态分布假设下,对2007年年末时点上在中国大陆经营财产保险业务的39家保险公司以及全行业整体巨灾损失赔付能力进行了实证分析。结果显示,在800亿到2000亿元的巨灾损失区间内,中国财产保险业的赔付效率在68.36%以上,全行业巨灾赔付能力缺口巨大,且损失幅度越大短缺的幅度越大。本文认为,造成这种赔付能力短缺的主要原因在于全行业资本与盈余的低水平以及再保险市场发展的严重滞后。
Chinese society has entered into a highly developed period of historical high risk accumulation. In such an environment, the property insurance industry with loss compensation as the main function has enough ability to pay for the loss and become an important issue that can not but be considered. Based on Cummins, Doherty, and Anita (2002), the paper introduces the Chinese insurance business data from 1998 to 2007. Under the assumption of improved lognormal distribution of losses, 39 insurance companies operating in the property insurance business in mainland China and the industry-wide overall catastrophe loss-making ability were analyzed empirically. The results show that the disbursement efficiency of China’s property insurance industry is above 68.36% in the range of catastrophe losses between 800 billion and 200 billion yuan, and the gap in the industry-wide catastrophe disbursement power is huge and the extent of the loss is even greater. This paper argues that the main reason for the shortage of this ability to pay lies in the low level of capital and surpluses in the industry and the serious lag in the reinsurance market.