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在中国经济新常态的战略布局下,中国大宗工业原材料相关行业如何发展和转型升级,成为当下人们关心的问题之一。以基本金属中最重要的铜金属消费为研究对象,构建和比较各种经济意义不同的消费强度模型,发现中国铜金属消费强度长期趋势有别于发达国家倒U型结构,呈现出独具特色的双峰形态,并进行了解释。通过计算,人均国民总收入达到4万元附近时,中国铜消费强度将达到最大值,形成第2个波峰,同与中国城市化进程基本完成的时段相近,为我国有色金属工业区域布局的战略发展和规划提供有益的参考。
Under the strategic layout of the new normal of economy in China, how to develop, transform and upgrade China’s bulk industrial raw material-related industries has become one of the issues people are concerned about now. Taking the most important consumption of copper metal as the research object, this paper constructs and compares various consumption intensity models with different economic meanings and finds that the long-term trend of consumption intensity of copper metal in China is different from that of inverted U-shaped structure in developed countries, showing unique characteristics The bimodal morphology, and was explained. By calculation, when the per capita GNI reaches around 40,000 yuan, the consumption intensity of copper in China will reach the maximum, forming the second peak, similar to the time when urbanization in China is basically completed and the strategy for the regional layout of China’s non-ferrous metal industry Development and planning provide a useful reference.