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本文基于小波降噪法对样本期间中国第三产业产出缺口进行了估计,发现我国第三产业产出缺口围绕零频繁上下波动,波动幅度随时间减弱。预测发现未来两年我国第三产业产出缺口将徘徊在零以下。利用估计的第三产业产出缺口分析各内生因素对我国产出缺口的影响,发现技术进步对我国第三产业产出缺口影响最大,国际资本因素排名次之,物质资本因素排名第三位,人力资本与金融发展因素影响较弱。
Based on the wavelet denoising method, this paper estimates the output gap of the tertiary industry in China during the sample period and finds that the output gap of the tertiary industry in our country fluctuates around zero frequently and the fluctuation amplitude weakens with time. It is predicted that the output gap of China’s tertiary industry will hover below zero in the next two years. Using the estimated output gap of the tertiary industry to analyze the impact of each endogenous factor on the output gap in our country, it is found that the technological progress has the greatest impact on the output gap of the tertiary industry in our country, followed by the international capital factor and the material capital factor by the third place , The impact of human capital and financial development is weaker.