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本文构建了一个出口贸易隐含碳排放恒等式,运用LMDI分解技术,对中国1997～2007年出口贸易隐含碳排放从产业层面和贸易伙伴层面进行了分解。结果表明:出口总量的扩张是中国出口贸易隐含碳排放持续高速增长的最主要因素,排放强度的降低是抑制隐含碳排放增长最主要因素,出口结构变化对隐含碳排放的影响有限,潜力还没有发挥出来。在短期内,通过提高能源利用效率降低排放强度是中国抑制出口中隐含碳排放增长的有效途径;从长远来看,出口结构的调整升级则是可行的选择。
This paper constructs an identity of implied carbon emissions in export trade. By using LMDI decomposition technique, the implied carbon emissions of China’s export trade from 1997 to 2007 are decomposed from the industrial level and the trading partner level. The results show that the expansion of export volume is the most important factor for the continuous high-speed growth of implicit carbon emissions in China’s export trade. The reduction of emission intensity is the most important factor to restrain the growth of implied carbon emission. The impact of export structure change on implied carbon emissions is limited , The potential has not yet played out. In the short term, reducing emission intensity by increasing energy efficiency is an effective way for China to curb the growth of hidden carbon emissions in exports. In the long run, the adjustment and upgrading of export structure is a viable option.