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提出了可以评价公路运输系统震后恢复过程的蒙特卡罗模拟方法。该模拟模型包括三个方面:1)网络破坏状态评定;2)包括交通流量分析在内的系统运行评价;3)恢复过程。恢复问题分为两部分:评价时只考虑节点间的连接程度的应急恢复和受交通控制影响的修复工作.用多个变量表示结构和功能的恢复。该方法已经用于研究伊豆半岛震后阶段的公路运输系统。文中用可能的人力和物力条件考察了由于受恢复进程的影响结构和功能的恢复过程、恢复次序和通行量。定量讨论了系统恢复的最佳策略。
A Monte Carlo simulation method that can evaluate the post-earthquake recovery process of highway transportation system is proposed. The simulation model includes three aspects: 1) network damage assessment; 2) system operation evaluation including traffic flow analysis; and 3) recovery process. The recovery problem is divided into two parts: emergency recovery considering only the degree of connection between nodes and restoration work under the influence of traffic control when evaluating, and using multiple variables to represent the restoration of structure and function. This method has been used to study road transport systems in the post-earthquake phase of the Izu Peninsula. In this paper, we use the possible human and material conditions to examine the recovery process, recovery order and traffic volume due to the impact of the recovery process on the structure and function. The best strategy for system recovery is discussed quantitatively.