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世界各国包括俄罗斯在内已经出版了大量关于可持续发展的理论研究方面的书籍。但总体而言,在不同结构层次(全球、国家、区域和地方)的可持续发展模型中,区域水平上的模型可能是最复杂和最基础的层次。本文在构建可持续发展模型的框架下,给出了一个区域经济、社会和生态发展的指标体系、标准和限制,并建立了一套评价区域自然资源潜力及其动态变化的方法。首先,对区域层次上达到可持续发展的条件和内容进行分析。其次,给出一个区域经济、社会和生态发展的框架。其中区域发展的经济质量是指其自身资源状况所带来的区域发展能力;区域发展的社会质量是指由区域的人口潜力和社会结构所带来的在一个长时期内稳定的区域人口以及由此提供的高标准生活质量的能力;区域发展的生态质量是指在一个长时期内区域保持其自然资源潜力和高质量环境的能力。区域可持续发展是在一个长时期内(10年)区域高质量的发展,在区域发展质量水平上进行可持续性和平衡性的评价是必要的,为此建立三者之间适当的比例关系。第三,为反映区域间发展的差异,对区域内的经济、社会等进行自然-经济区划以及对每个分区进行相应的指标的计算。这些绝对和相对的可持续发展比率反映了一定时期内实际的状态距离标准值的程度,刻画了区域发展的质量特征。如果这种比率发生变化,或者相对标准值发生动态改变,那么这些比率就可以评估发展的稳定性,以及同时反映了区域发展在质量上的提高或者降低。第四,区域自然资源潜力及其动态变化的评价。第一步是进行局部自然资源分区和把国土自然资源系统作为最复杂的评价对象进行整体考虑。然后对每一个自然资源系统进行动态平衡的计算(这种平衡反映了自然资源的动态和状态)。自然资源潜在的变化可以用实际的或者预测的数据进行计算。
Many countries in the world, including Russia, have published numerous books on the theoretical research of sustainable development. Overall, however, the models at the regional level may be the most complex and fundamental at different levels of structural models (global, national, regional and local). Under the framework of building a sustainable development model, this paper gives an index system, standards and limits for regional economic, social and ecological development and establishes a set of methods to evaluate the potential of natural resources in the region and its dynamic changes. First, analyze the conditions and contents for achieving sustainable development at the regional level. Second, it gives a framework of regional economic, social and ecological development. The economic quality of regional development refers to the regional development capacity brought by the status of its own resources. The social quality of regional development refers to the stable population in a long period brought by the regional population potential and social structure, The ability to provide a high standard of quality of life; and the ecological quality of regional development means the ability of the region to maintain its natural resource potential and a quality environment over a long period of time. Regional sustainable development is a region of high quality development over a long period of time (10 years). It is necessary to evaluate sustainability and balance at the level of regional development quality by establishing an appropriate proportional relationship among the three . Thirdly, in order to reflect the differences in regional development, conduct natural-economic regionalization of the economy and society within the region and calculate the corresponding indicators for each district. These absolute and relative rates of sustainable development reflect the extent to which the actual state of the state has been away from the standard value for a given period of time and characterize the quality of regional development. If such rates change or if the relative standard values change dynamically, then these ratios can assess the stability of development and at the same time reflect a qualitative increase or decrease in regional development. Fourth, the assessment of the potential of regional natural resources and their dynamic changes. The first step is to localize natural resources and consider the natural resources system of the territories as the most comprehensive assessment object. Then, each natural resource system is dynamically balanced (this balance reflects the dynamics and status of natural resources). Potential changes in natural resources can be calculated using actual or forecast data.