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目的 为探索海南省登革热流行的规律。方法 以感染蚊传染性寿命pn/-lnp≥1天所需的温度作为适于登革热传播的最低温度,再根据不同温度下登革病毒在蚊体内发育所需天数和海南省1987～1996年海南省气象资料,推算全年适于登革热传播的时间。结果 在埃及伊蚊日存活率P=0.89情况下适于传播的最低温度估计为21℃;海南北部地区冬季（12～2月）月均温度低于21℃,不适于登革热传播,南部地区的冬季略高于21℃,仅具备低速传播的温度条件。结论 推断海南省不是登革热地方性流行区,这与当地登革热传热流行的实际情况相符。但在全球变暖条件下,当冬季温度升高1～2℃,估算海南省全年均适于登革热传播,从而有可能成为登革热地方性流行区。
Objective To explore the prevalence of dengue in Hainan Province. Methods The temperature required for infection of mosquito-infecting life pn / -lnp≥1 days was taken as the minimum temperature suitable for dengue transmission. According to the number of days required for dengue virus to develop in mosquito at different temperatures and Hainan Province from 1987 to 1996 Provincial meteorological data, projected annual spread of dengue fever time. Results The minimum temperature suitable for transmitting in the Aedes aegypti day survival rate P = 0.89 was estimated to be 21 ℃. The average monthly temperature in northern Hainan in December and February was less than 21 ℃, which was not suitable for the spread of dengue fever. Winter is slightly higher than 21 ℃, only with low temperature propagation conditions. Conclusions It is inferred that Hainan is not a endemic endemic area of dengue, which is in line with the actual situation of local dengue heat transfer. However, under the condition of global warming, when the winter temperature is raised by 1 ~ 2 ℃, it is estimated that Hainan Province is suitable for the spread of dengue fever throughout the year, which may become endemic endemic to dengue.