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雷暴是强对流天气的一种,是中尺度对流活动发展得结果,属于严重影响飞行安全的天气现象之一。目前对雷暴的预报主要依赖于预报员对天气形势的分析和预报经验。基于对流参数的雷暴预报方法是基于定量预报思想,找到适合本地实际的一些规律指标,作出雷暴单点定量预报。本文着力于通过对川内探空台站的对流参数的研究,寻找遂宁机场适合的一些规律指标,建立预报方程,丰富预报手段,提高遂宁机场雷暴预报的准确率,更好的为飞行训练服务。
Thunderstorm is a kind of strong convective weather which is the result of the development of mesoscale convective activity and belongs to one of the weather phenomena that seriously affect flight safety. The current forecast of thunderstorms mainly relies on forecasters’ analysis and prediction of weather conditions. The method of thunderstorm forecasting based on convection parameters is based on the idea of quantitative forecast and finds some regular indexes that are suitable for local reality, and makes a single point quantitative forecast of thunderstorm. This paper focuses on the study of the convective parameters of the Chuan’ei sounding station, finding suitable rules for the Suining airport, establishing forecasting equations, enriching the forecasting methods, improving the accuracy of the forecast of the thunderstorm in Suining airport, and better serving the flight training.