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2008年下半年以来,受国际金融危机影响,我国全社会用电量增幅一改近年来持续两位数增长的态势,急剧回落,甚至单月同比大幅下降。从国际看,金融危机给我国经济社会的发展增添了很多不确定性,经济下行风险大为增加,2009年电力供需形势的判断难度增大。经汇总各地电力运行主管部门、主要电力企业和相关行业协会意见,并参考亚洲金融危机期间电力运行走势,我们对今年供需形势做了初步预测和判断。
Since the second half of 2008, under the influence of the international financial crisis, the growth rate of total electricity consumption in our society has changed in a sustained double-digit growth trend in recent years, dropping sharply down or even dropping sharply in a single month on a year-on-year basis. Internationally, the financial crisis has added a lot of uncertainty to the economic and social development of our country. The risk of economic downturn has greatly increased, making it increasingly difficult to judge the situation of electricity supply and demand in 2009. After summarizing the opinions of the competent power operation departments, major power companies and relevant trade associations around the region and referring to the power running trend during the Asian financial crisis, we made preliminary forecasts and judgments on the supply and demand situation this year.