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过去的十几年间,我国木材进口迅猛增长。木材的大量进口一方面缓解了国内的需求压力,另一方面也带来了诸多不利影响。因此,研究我国木材进口迅猛增长的根源意义重大。在分析我国近年来原木进口变化趋势的基础上,利用逐步回归法定量分析了导致我国木材进口快速增加的主要因素。研究结果表明:1993-2008年间,国内木材产量、家具和木材制成品出口以及汇率因素对原木进口量变化的作用最为显著,成为此期间影响原木进口量变化的主要决定因素。并提出了相应的政策建议。
Over the past ten years, China’s timber imports increased rapidly. The massive import of timber on the one hand has eased the pressure of domestic demand, on the other hand has brought a lot of adverse effects. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the root causes of the rapid growth of timber imports in our country. Based on the analysis of the trend of log imports in recent years in our country, the main factors that led to the rapid increase of timber imports in our country are analyzed by stepwise regression. The results show that during the period of 1993-2008, the domestic timber output, the export of furniture and wood products and the exchange rate factor played the most significant role in the change of log import volume, which became the main determinant of the change of log import volume during this period. And put forward the corresponding policy recommendations.