论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨流行性出血热的数学模型并对今后的流行趋势进行预测,为防控工作提供指导。方法分析娄底市2004-2011年流行性出血热的疫情特点,建立灰色系统GM(1,1)模型并预测流行性出血热在2012、2013年发病情况。结果通过模型分析,该模型相对误差在0.24%~32%之间,模型良好。结论该模型适用于本地区流行性出血热并提示流行性出血热在娄底市有上升趋势,应及时采取防范措施。
Objective To explore the mathematical model of epidemic hemorrhagic fever and predict the future epidemic trend, providing guidance for prevention and control work. Methods The epidemic characteristics of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Loudi from 2004 to 2011 were analyzed, and a gray system GM (1,1) model was established and the incidence of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in 2012 and 2013 was predicted. Results Through the model analysis, the relative error of the model is between 0.24% and 32%, and the model is good. Conclusion The model is suitable for epidemic hemorrhagic fever in the region and suggests that epidemic hemorrhagic fever is on the rise in Loudi City and should be taken timely preventive measures.