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目的应用捕获-再捕获方法(CMR)评价居民死因登记报告质量,校正常规监测居民死亡率和婴儿死亡率。方法采用多阶段随机整群抽样方法,对抽取的37538户居民逐户调查人口死亡情况,再与同期监测系统所报告的死亡资料进行核对,计算漏报率以及总体死亡率95%可信区间(CI)。结果云南省国家疾病监测点居民死亡漏报率和婴儿死亡漏报率分别为19.86%和44.74%;校正报告死亡率和校正报告婴儿死亡率分别为7.04‰和32.29‰;估计总体死亡率和总体婴儿死亡率95%CI分别为6.89‰～7.18‰和23.02‰～41.57‰。结论使用捕获-再捕获方法可以校正低估的全死因死亡率和婴儿死亡率,适时开展漏报调查,是有效弥补常规监测不足的方法之一。
Objective To evaluate the quality of registration of death causes by using capture-recapture method (CMR), and to monitor routinely monitored resident and infant mortality rates. Methods A multistage randomized cluster sampling method was used to investigate the population deaths of 37538 households sampled from households and compare with the death data reported by the monitoring system of the same period to calculate the omission rate and the 95% confidence interval of the overall mortality rate CI). Results The rate of underexposure to death and underexposure to infant death at the national disease surveillance sites in Yunnan Province were 19.86% and 44.74% respectively. The corrected and corrected infant mortality rates were 7.04 ‰ and 32.29 ‰, respectively. The estimated overall mortality and overall mortality The 95% CI of infant mortality were 6.89 ‰ ~ 7.18 ‰ and 23.02 ‰ ~ 41.57 ‰, respectively. Conclusions The use of capture-recapture method can correct underestimated all-cause mortality and infant mortality, and timely under-reporting investigation is one of the effective ways to make up for the lack of routine monitoring.