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本研究以401名9~14岁儿童为被试,考察其心目中的独立随机序列,结果发现:儿童基于已有的概率知识与生活经验等,描述出随机与不随机两类序列,给出的理由可以分为5类。进一步分析表明,依据直觉、动手试验或生活经验的儿童,比运用模糊的概率知识的儿童描述出更多具有随机性的序列。因而,动手试验,收集数据,通过数据感受随机性,进而感受规律性,是儿童学习概率的有效方式。
In this study, 401 children aged 9 to 14 years were used as subjects to investigate their independent random sequences. The results showed that children based on the existing probability knowledge and life experience described random and non-random sequences, The reasons can be divided into five categories. Further analysis showed that children based on intuition, hands-on experimentation, or life experience described more random sequences than children who used fuzzy probability knowledge. Therefore, hands-on testing, data collection, through the data to experience randomness, and then feel the regularity, is an effective way to learn the probability of children.