论文部分内容阅读
根据黑龙江省西部地区两个国营农场近些年来春油菜菌核病的调查资料和相应的气象数据，建立了依赖于气象因素的春油菜菌核病流行强度的预测模型：Ｙ＝２６６．３４＋０．５４５８Ｘ１－３．２９７８ｘ２－０．５２５５Ｘ３，其中，Ｘ１为７月上、中旬两旬的降雨量，Ｘ２为７月中旬湿度，Ｘ３为７月下旬日照时数。通过对历史资料的检验，流行强度预测准确率为８５．７％，本文所得预测模型适合于黑龙江省西部地区春油菜菌核病发生程度的预测。
According to the survey data and corresponding meteorological data of sclerotinia sclerotiorum in two state-run farms in western Heilongjiang Province in recent years, a prediction model of epidemic intensity of sclerotinia sclerotiorum depending on meteorological factors was established: Y = 266.34 +0. 5458X1-3.2978x2-0.5255X3, where X1 is the rainfall in upper and middle ten days in July, X2 is the humidity in mid July, and X3 is the sunshine hours in late July. Through the test of historical data, the accuracy of epidemic intensity prediction is 85.7%. The prediction model of this paper is suitable for the prediction of the occurrence of sclerotinia sclerotiorum in the western region of Heilongjiang Province.