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树木年轮是全球变化研究中获取过去气候环境演变数据的重要载体,具有定年准确、连续性好、分辨率及重建精度高等优势。通过单调趋势检验塔里木河上中游径流量与胡杨年轮的趋势变化情况,将树木年轮与历史文献记载相结合,分析塔里木河下游树木年轮对水分供给的响应情况,印证胡杨年轮对河道改道事件响应的准确性。结果表明:(1)1957—2010年,塔里木河上中游胡杨径向生长量在时间序列上逐渐下降,与径流有着相同的变化趋势,且下降趋势显著;(2)下游年轮标本显示1913—2000年胡杨径向生长量整体下降,1973—2001年更加明显而达到近100年最低水平,拉依河的形成、改道、重归故道等与历史文献记载相同;(3)生态输水工程的开展改善了下游生态环境,这从下游胡杨年轮上得到了验证,但近15年的生态输水远未使下游胡杨年轮生长量达到1920年以前的水平,说明目前的生态输水对荒漠河岸林的恢复能力也是有限的;(4)在胡杨年轮对水资源的响应分析中,小波分析方法与历史文献记载得出了相同的结论。
The tree ring is an important carrier for obtaining the data of past climate and climate evolution in the global change study. It has the advantages of accurate dating, good continuity, high resolution and high reconstruction accuracy. Through the monotonic trend of the upper and middle reaches of the Tarim River runoff and the trend of Populus euphratica trends, the tree rings and historical records combined with the analysis of the response of the tree rings in the lower reaches of the Tarim River to the water supply to confirm the Populus euphratica diversion The accuracy of the incident response. The results showed that: (1) The radial growth of Populus euphratica in the upper and middle reaches of Tarim River decreased gradually in time series from 1957 to 2010, with the same tendency of runoff and the downward trend was significant. (2) The annual ring specimens showed 1913-2000 The annual growth of Populus euphratica in the radial direction decreased as a whole, more obviously from 1973 to 2001, reaching the lowest level in nearly 100 years. The formation, diversion and return of the Lahe River were the same as the historical records. (3) Carrying out the ecological water conveyance project Improve the downstream ecological environment, which was verified from the downstream poplar annual ring, but nearly 15 years of ecological water is far from the downstream growth of Populus euphratica until 1920 levels, indicating that the current ecological water transport on the desert banks (4) In the response analysis of Populus euphratica to water resources, the wavelet analysis method and historical records reached the same conclusion.