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为了拥有和享受与中国经济高速增长所相得益彰的长期牛市,我们需要脚踏实地,一步一个脚印。如果头脑发热、忘乎所以、预期膨胀,过多地透支未来的行情,把5年、10年的牛市在1年、2年内走完,我们虽然可以享受一时消化不良的盛宴,但却要承受其后漫漫熊市的煎熬,这是国民经济和广大投资者都不需要的东西。然而,目前的中国证券市场,是否已经过热?是否需要引起关注和警觉?回答看来是肯定的。市场乐观情绪膨胀市场过热的第一个标志是伴随着综合指数持续、加速度上升,市场乐观情绪的膨胀。从近两年前沪深股市触底反弹以来,股指在不到两年的时间里已经上涨近4倍。去年末今年初以来,进入加速上扬阶段,其间市场几乎没有任何像样的调整和消化。即使考虑到市场元气恢复和股权分置改革的因素,市场在这样短时期内的巨幅上升,放在世界证券史的大平台上,也是罕见的行情,其中孕育着难以避免的获利回吐和风险释放的压力。在股指已经进入高端区位后,在熊市末期沉寂的评论家,甚至当时竞相营造更加悲观氛围的预言家们,现在又争先恐后地调高自己的乐观预期,渲染牛市气氛,甚至不惮鼓动人们无视风险、火中取栗。其实,这种牛市思维的主导性和普遍化,往往是市场过热的外部信号。
In order to own and enjoy the long-term bull market, which is compatible with China’s rapid economic growth, we need to work in a down-to-earth manner and step by step. If the head fever, forget about it, expected to swell, overdraft the future market too much, the 5-year, 10-year bull market in 1 year, 2 years to finish, although we can enjoy a temporary indigestion feast, but have to bear Long suffering bear market, this is the national economy and the vast majority of investors do not need anything. However, is there any overheating in the current Chinese securities market and is there any need to draw attention and vigilance? The reply seems affirmative. Market Optimism Emotional Expansion The first sign of overheating in the market was the expansion of optimism in the market along with the continuation of the composite index, the acceleration and the optimism of the market. Since the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets bottomed out nearly two years ago, the stock index has risen nearly four-fold in less than two years. Since the beginning of this year since the beginning of this year, it has entered an accelerated upward phase with little or no adjustment and digestion in the market. Even taking into account factors such as market recovery and share-trading reform, the rapid rise of the market in such a short period of time on the grand platform of the world’s securities history is also a rare market where pregnant with unavoidable profit-taking and The pressure of risk release. After the stock index had entered the upper end, critics who were quiet in the end of the bear market, and even those who were vying to create a more pessimistic atmosphere, are now scrambling to raise their optimistic expectations, rendering a bullish mood and even daring to indulge people in ignoring the risks, Take the fire in the chestnut. In fact, the domination and generalization of this bull market mentality is often an external signal of overheating in the market.