通过分析山东省各代棉铃虫历年实际发生情况和其对应的气象条件,用数理统计方法对棉铃虫发生发展具有影响的气象因子进行筛选,确定各影响因子的影响权重系数,并划分与棉铃虫发生等级相对应的气象因子影响等级域值,由此,构建了棉铃虫发生趋势的气象等级预报模型,为棉铃虫的防治提供科学依据。 By analyzing the actual occurrence and the corresponding meteorological conditions of the cotton bollworm in Shandong Province over the years, the meteorological factors influencing the occurrence and development of the cotton bollworm were screened by mathematical statistics. The influential weight coefficients of each influencing factor were determined, The meteorological factors affecting the level of the corresponding value of the occurrence level, so as to establish a weather forecasting model of the occurrence trend of the bollworm, and provide a scientific basis for the prevention and control of the cotton bollworm.